Transport air pollution in India

Global motor vehicle numbers and activity are growing rapidly. The OECD accounts for the bulk of global motor vehicle activity, but much of the growth will likely be concentrated in the less-industrialized countries (LICs), including in Asia. An important characteristic of motor vehicle activity in Asian LICs is the predominance of motorized two-wheeled (M2W) vehicles. Because of the concentration of motor vehicular and other energy-intensive activities in LIC megacities, air quality in these cities is poor. Further, because of the large populations of urban poor, who suffer from inadequate nutrition and limited medical care, significant health impacts ensue (Brandon and Ramankutty, 1993; Faiz et al., 1992; Romieu et al., 1991; Sathaye et al., 1994; Walsh, 1994; WHO/UNEP, 1992).

The trends in motor vehicle activity and urban air quality in the LICs are abundantly evident in India. India’s motor vehicle fleet increased from only 665,000 in 1961, and 5.4 million as late as 1981, to around 40 million as of 2000. M2W vehicles are the most rapidly growing vehicle type in India, and represent around 67% of motor vehicles nationally. India arguably has the largest population of this vehicle type of any country. In the Indian capital, Delhi, around 2.6 million motor vehicles were registered in 1996. Of these, about 1.7 million were M2W vehicles. The motor vehicle fleet presently stands at around four millions. If current trends persist, Delhi will likely have around 5.2 million motor vehicles by 2005. Around 3.4 millions of these will likely be M2W vehicles (AIAM, 1995; ASRTU/CIRT, 1997; Mohan et al., 1997).

Air quality in Delhi has been poor since the late 1980s. Surveys in the mid-1990s showed daily average suspended particulate (SPM) levels, which are strongly correlated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, exceeding WHO limits almost daily, with peak levels as high as 6–10 times the WHO limit at many sites. Daily average sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels exceeded WHO limits on several days annually, at several sites. Ozone appears to be a major problem, especially in winter. The contribution of transport to air pollution is growing in Delhi and other Indian and LIC cities. Because M2W vehicles are used intensively, and are for the most part powered by highly polluting two-stroke engines, these vehicles play an important role in transport air pollution, particularly on a passenger-kilometre basis. Though vehicle emission standards have been progressively tightened in the 1990s, and those relating to M2W vehicles for 2000 are one of the most stringent globally, many in-use M2W and other Indian motor vehicles pollute heavily (CPCB, 1996, 1997; CSE, 1996; MoST, 1996; Shah and Nagpal, 1997; WHO/UNEP, 1992).

Motor vehicle activity in Delhi and other LIC cities has important implications for road safety, land use, access and mobility, and other transport impacts, in addition to air pollution. This growth also has implications for energy security, acidification and climate change. While the OECD accounts for about two-thirds of global commercial energy consumption due to transport, its demand growth is expected to be flat or growing slowly. LIC transport energy demand, currently only around one-third that in the OECD, could increase 2–3 times in three decades (Brandon and Ramankutty, 1993; Gr .ubler, 1994; TERI, 1997).

Air pollution due to M2W and other motor vehicles, and more generally, transport–energy–environment linkages in India and other LICs, are therefore issues worthy of public policy attention. M2W vehicles play an important role in transport air pollution in Indian and other Asian LIC cities, but they also provide mobility to millions who have few other attractive options. Thus, the public policy challenge in terms of emissions from M2W and other vehicles is to address the problem while minimizing adverse policy impacts for vehicle users. It is this challenge that provides the rationale for this paper, which aims to inform policy-making and implementation related to transport air pollution in India. While the paper focuses on India, it is hoped that it will be of relevance to other Asian LICs, since many of these countries share features such as rapid growth in motor vehicle activity, particularly in terms of M2W vehicles, and deteriorating air quality, with Indian cities.