Climate change arising due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere since the pre-industrial times has emerged as a serious global environmental issue and poses a threat and challenge to mankind. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change enjoins upon the Parties to the Convention to protect the climate system according to their common but differentiated responsibilities. The parties to the convention are also required to report to the convention on a regular basis a comprehensive and comparable inventory of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and the steps taken to protect the climate. Towards the fulfillment of its obligations, India submitted its initial national communication to the UNFCCC in June 2004. This paper analyses the improvements made in greenhouse gases (GHG) inventory estimation reported in the Initial National Communication with respect to the earlier published estimates and highlights the strengths, the gaps that still exist and the future challenges for inventory refinement. An assessment of the current and projected trends of GHG emission from India and some selected countries indicates that though Indian emissions grew at the rate of 4 per cent per annum during 1990 and 2000 period and are projected to grow further to meet the national developmental needs, the absolute level of GHG emissions in 2020 will be below 5 per cent of global emissions and the per capita emissions will still be low compared to most of the developed countries as well as the global average. 

THE rising concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) of  anthropogenic origin in the atmosphere such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased, since the late 19th century. According to the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, because of the increase in concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (for e.g., CO2 by 29 per cent, CH4 by 150 per cent and N2O by 15 per cent) in the last 100 years, the mean surface temperature has risen by 0.4–0.8°C globally. The precipitation has become spatially variable and the intensity and frequency of extreme events has increased. The sea level also has risen at an average annual rate of 1–2 mm during this period. The continued increase in concentration of GHG in the atmosphere is likely to lead to climate change resulting in large changes in ecosystems, leading to possible catastrophic disruptions of livelihoods, economic activity, living conditions, and human health.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change requires the parties to protect the climate system in accordance with their ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ and respective capabilities. It enjoins upon developed countries to take the lead role for combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof, considering their historically higher contribution to the total anthropogenic load of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In the year 1990, the developed world (Australia, Canada, USA, Europe, former USSR and Japan) emitted around 66 per cent of the total global GHG emissions, which though has reduced to 54 per cent in 2000, mainly offset by the rise in Chinese emissions (see Figure 1). The South Asian region, including three-fourths  emission share of India, contributed only 3 per cent of the total global GHG emissions in1990 and the share of emissions from South Asia has grown merely by 4 per cent in 2000. In accordance with the Article 12 of the climate convention, the parties are required to report on a continuous basis an information on implementation of the convention inter alia an inventory of greenhouse gases by sources and removals by sinks (see note 1) and also the steps taken to address climate change. Towards the fulfillment of the obligations under the convention, India submitted its Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC on 22 June 2004. 

This paper analyses the improvements made in GHG inventory estimation reported therein with respect to earlier published estimates and highlights the strengths, the gaps that still exist and the future challenges for its refinement. Further, the paper examines the key sources where efforts are needed to develop a more refined inventory with attendant reduction in uncertainties. The paper also makes an assessment of the current and projected trends of GHG emission from India and some selected countries.