The international debate on climate change is influenced to a significant extent by studies that estimate the GHG emissions trajectories of the major economies of the world. These studies are based on detailed energy-economy models that project global and region or country-wise GHG emissions. Until recently, most of these studies have been carried out in developed countries, and have often applied assumptions and techniques that do not necessarily reflect the ground realities in developing countries. With a view to develop a fact-based perspective on climate change in India that clearly reflects the realities of its economic growth, the policy and regulatory structures, and the vulnerabilities of climate change, the Government of India, through the Ministry of Environment & Forests, has supported a set of independent studies by leading economic institutions. This initiative is aimed at better reflecting the policy and regulatory structure in India, and its specific climate change vulnerabilities. The studies, which use distinct methodologies, are based on the development of energy-economic and impact models that enable an integrated assessment of India’s GHG emissions profile, mitigation options and costs, as well as the economic and food security implications. This publication puts together the results of Phase I of three of these studies, together with those of two other recent studies, which focus on estimating the GHG emissions trajectory of India for the next two decades, using a number of different techniques.

B. STUDIES PRESENTED IN THIS REPORT

This report summarizes the initial results of five studies. These studies are:

1. NCAER-CGE: A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model study by India’s National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)

2. TERI-MoEF: A MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model study by The Energy & Resources Institute (TERI)

3. IRADe-AA: An Activity Analysis model study by the Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe)

4. TERI-Poznan: Another MARKAL model based study by The Energy & Resources Institute presented at the 14th Conference of Parties (COP) on Climate Change at Poznan

5. McKinsey: A detailed sector by sector analysis of GHG emissions by McKinsey and Company

The first three studies were funded by the Ministry of Environment & Forests, Government of India.

The TERI-Poznan and McKinsey studies were supported by other funding sources. All studies were undertaken independently. The Ministry of Environment & Forests functioned as the facilitator, bringing together the various studies under a common platform, facilitating a peer review process and publishing the results. The studies have differences in model structure, specific model assumptions and parameters, as well as some differences in the definitions of the “Illustrative Scenario” whose results are reported.

The results relate to India’s emissions profile over the next two decades. The main results of the illustrative scenarios are in Table 1; details of the assumptions and data sources for illustrative scenarios are presented in Table 2; and details of the model methodologies are presented in Table 3.